While I am getting closer to get my Masters Degree in Grenoble Graduate School of Business, I am becoming more focused on finding a Job. Due to lack of opportunities and expertise in my country of origin, Lebanon, my aim is turning towards European countries, France specifically. This is because, firstly I speak the language and secondly, it’s the land of multinationals!
In this paper I will try to identify and calculate the likelihood, or the probability, for me to get a job in France. The number I will come up with in the end is not based on true facts; it only takes into consideration assumptions that I will personally consider throughout the Process.
1) The number of students Vs job applications:
It is hard to find data that can answer this question directly. Therefore, I will get the available numbers and try to match them.
In 2010 the number of students in France was 1.4 million with 12% foreigners. The percentage of students attending business schools or “Grandes écoles” is estimated to be around 4%, which means approximately 56000 students are attending business schools in France with ½ (28000) of them applying for a job since most business schools offer 2 years program.
The number of Job finders between 2009 and 2010 is estimated to be around 1,9 million. This number is shared between experienced professionals who search for a new job and the new Graduate students. Let us suppose that1/2 (50%) of the 1.9 million, are fresh Graduates. So we will get about 950,000 students who got a new job. The critical part here is to define: what is the percentage of jobs that I can fit as a Business School student?!
Generally, the business school students are flexible among different positions, so I am going to be optimist and say that I can fit 1/40 of these jobs which means 23,750 jobs available. This was tested by searching randomly among 200 jobs on a job search engine and found only 4 or 5 jobs that interested me. In addition, most of the students who attend business schools are willing to get a job in Europe, and most likely in France, where their school is best recognised, suggesting that 80% (22,400) of the Graduate students apply for a job in France.
Result 1: (23,750/22,400).
2) Foreigner student:
I am 100% Lebanese and I do not hold any EU passport. In 2011 around 5,700 foreign students were allowed to transfer their work permit especially after May 31st circular.
In addition, from the total foreign students, around 23% are European, so we exclude them from the competition; and the rest should compete on the 5,700 permits.
I should also mention that this quota is divided among different nationalities. As the important number of Lebanese in French Business schools I will suppose that we can get 20% of the Quota.
Result 2: 5700*20%/(22,400*12%*(1-23%))
3) School Ranking:
Assuming that Candidates from only French Business schools apply for a job. According to the Financial Times GGSB is ranked 6th comparing to other French Business schools.
In addition, due to complexity measures I will also assume that companies located in France do not look to diversify in their recruitment among different schools. They will just take the best students! So I have one chance over 6 to get a job if one candidate from each of the other top 5 business schools has applied for the same job.
Result 3: 1/6
4) My name:
Unfortunately nowadays and especially in the western countries, recruiters tend to include the candidates name within the recruitment Process. When Rachad starts to be confusing, EL Saddi does not help at all. In Arabic we use El to make the family name sounds better, but in Europe, it doesn’t sound good at all! What I am going to assume here is that what I hope to be the reality: that one person over two will not take into consideration the name while reviewing my application.
Result 4: ½
This factor is a combination of different factors that can affect my probability of getting a job in France. The X-Factor includes the CV presentation, the performance in the interviews, my grades compared to other candidates, my work experience, my application, my tests results, my extra-curricular activities, recruiter preferences, and finally, luck! This Factor can affect my process positively, just as it can affect it negatively. Therefore, I will assume a 50/50 chance that this factor will either increase or decrease my likelihood of getting a job. In this case I will define the multiplication factor as 1.
Result 5: 1
Final Result= Res1*Res2*Res3*Res4*Res5
= (23750/22,400)* 5700*20%/(22,400*12%*(1-23%))*(1/6)*(1/2)*1
Based on some statistical data and personal assumptions, I have managed to calculate my likelihood to get a job in France. I should mention again that the weights of the factors and the assumptions are based on personal beliefs and analysis.
So before I make a career in Business development I think I already found my first challenge. I have to increase my opportunity by 2,000 % in order to get to the 100% chance and get a job in France.